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Significant underestimation of flood risks

In order to better assess flood hazards, hazard maps should include historical data. This is what researchers at the CEDIM – Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) are advocating. CEDIM has presented a first report on the flood disaster in Rhineland-Palatinate and North Rhine-Westphalia. Regarding the role of climate change, the combination of more available water in the atmosphere and increasing persistence of large-scale weather patterns holds an increasing potential for extreme precipitation events.

Last week’s flood disaster claimed more than 170 lives in Germany (as of July 21, 2021). People are still missing. The damage to buildings and infrastructure can only be roughly determined and is in the double-digit billions – of which at least two billion euros alone for transport infrastructure. In the meantime, the German Insurance Association (GDV) has calculated the insured damage to buildings and infrastructure. (GDV) has estimated the insured damage at four to five billion euros in Rhineland-Palatinate and North Rhine-Westphalia alone. How did the floods, which mainly affected Rhineland-Palatinate and North Rhine-Westphalia, come about? How can flood hazards – especially rare, extreme events – be better estimated in advance? These are the questions that CEDIM’s Forensic Disaster Analysis (FDA) Group has been addressing, and it has produced its first report.

As the researchers explain, enormous amounts of precipitation led, for example, to the water level at the Ahr (Altenahr) significantly exceeding its previous record of 2016 (3.71 meters, discharge: 236 m³/s). However, due to flooding, the gauging station failed at a value of 5.05 meters (discharge: 332 m³/s). The Rhineland-Palatinate State Office for the Environment used model calculations to calculate a level of up to seven meters for the night of the catastrophe; based on this, the experts estimated a discharge of between 400 and 700 m³/s.

Several factors led to the extremely high precipitation totals

From a meteorological perspective, several factors led to the extremely high precipitation totals. In addition, the highly indented terrain of the affected regions, especially in the district of Ahrweiler, with partly deeply incised river valleys, increased the surface runoff. The already nearly saturated soil due to partly heavy precipitation in the preceding days further aggravated the situation.

 

“Within 48 hours, more rain fell in parts of North Rhine-Westphalia and Rhineland-Palatinate than usually falls there in the entire month of July; the majority even fell within only about ten hours.”

– Professor Michael Kunz, CEDIM Spokesperson

 

To estimate the flooded areas in the hardest-hit areas of Kreis Ahrweiler and Rhein-Erft-Kreis, the research team combined satellite data with aerial photos from (amateur) drones and helicopters, as well as photos from social media. According to these estimated flooded areas, there are just over 19,000 buildings in the affected areas with a value of around nine billion euros. Combined with empirical data from past flood disasters (infrastructure damage, natural hazards, and other damage), the researchers estimated total damage between eleven and 24 billion euros (first CEDIM estimate: July 21, 2021). It should be noted, however, that flooded areas represent only a portion of the total affected area.

More available water in the atmosphere and increasing persistence of large-scale weather patterns increase risk

According to the Karlsruhe disaster researchers, whether a single extreme event or the sequence of several extremes can already be attributed to climate change can neither be precisely proven nor completely denied, especially when it comes to events on short time and spatial scales that are strongly influenced by local factors. However, for the large-scale processes in the atmosphere that lead to the development of extreme events, the following is true: The combination of more available water in the atmosphere as a result of temperature increase and an increasing persistence of large-scale weather patterns with a tending northward shift of the jet stream, the strong wind band in the upper troposphere, has a high hazard potential. “As a positive trend is expected for these three factors, the potential for extreme precipitation events will also increase in the future,” Kunz explains.

Significant flood events in the Ahr Valley as early as 1804 and 1910

“There have already been two particularly significant flood events in the Ahr Valley in the past, in 1804 and 1910, but a comparison with historical records suggests that this year’s values should be classified lower than those of 1804,” says CEDIM deputy spokesperson Dr. James Daniell. For the 1804 flood event, the discharge was already estimated at about 1,100 m³/s by the University of Bonn. This year’s event may have been hydrologically similar in magnitude to the 1910 event with a discharge of 500 m³/s. “The current flood maps for the Ahr valley are currently based on discharge statistics with data since 1947, as homogeneous measurement series have been available since that time. However, this means that the two historical events have not yet been taken into account in the hazard assessment,” says Dr. Andreas Schäfer, lead author of the report. For example, the current estimate of a hundred-year flood as a design basis for flood protection for the Ahr River is 241 m³/s.

CEDIM’s FDA Group urges the inclusion of historical data in flood hazard maps, including data from before continuous measurement records, to better assess flood hazards. “Admittedly, when analyzing and interpreting the data, we must generally keep in mind that both infrastructures and flood protection measures have changed in recent years. As a result, it’s harder to compare readings directly, and we should focus less on water levels,” Daniell explains. “We can use gauge levels from 1804 and 1910 as indirect indicators to identify flood years. However, measured data on discharge, on trends over time, and on precipitation totals are more important for interpretation. Ultimately, however, both historical variables – gauges and discharge – should be included when developing hazard maps.”

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Recycling technology to increase value of recycled aseptic cartons in Brazil

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SIG today announces a BRL 10 million investment in innovative recycling technology that will enable polymers and aluminium from used aseptic carton packs to be recovered and sold separately for the first time on an industrial scale in Brazil. By expanding the range of applications for recycled materials from used aseptic cartons, SIG expects to increase their value by more than 50 percent.

“We are excited to bring to Brazil a new technology that will enable separation of aluminium and polyethylene layers from carton packs, thereby expanding the market for these materials and generating more value from the separated waste,” says Ricardo Rodriguez, President and General Manager for SIG Americas. “This project is the latest in a series of innovative collaborations led by SIG to boost collection and recycling rates for used aseptic cartons and grow the recycling chain in a sustainable way.”

 

Innovative recycling technology

The renewable paper board that makes up around 75 percent of aseptic carton packs on average can be separated for recycling in paper mills through Brazil’s existing recycling infrastructure. The polyethylene and aluminium mix (polyaluminium or PolyAl) left over from this process can be recycled into a robust material for purposes such as roofing, pallets and furniture.

SIG’s recycling plant will use innovative technology that makes it possible to separate the polyethylene from the aluminium in PolyAl to create a wider market and demand for these recycled materials. Developed over five years with project partner ECS Consulting, the new technology has already undergone a pilot project that proved the effectiveness of the chemical recycling process.

The new recycling plant is currently in construction in the state of Paraná. It is expected to begin operating in 2024 with an initial production capacity of 200 tonnes per month. Together with industry partners, SIG has also invested in a plant in Germany to separate polymers and aluminium from PolyAl that went into production in 2021.

 

Ethical collection programmes

Investing in new technology to create a wider market for recycled materials is an important step in increasing recycling rates for used aseptic cartons. SIG has already led the way with innovative programmes to support two other important steps: collection of used packaging from consumers and separation of that packaging to go into the right recycling streams.

SIG’s so+ma vantagens programme, run in partnership with NGO so+ma since 2018, enables people in underprivileged communities to collect loyalty points for bringing in waste for recycling. The points can then be exchanged for rewards, such as essential food products and skills training. SIG is now expanding this model to promote recycling and bring additional societal benefits to further municipalities in Brazil and beyond.

SIG also promotes public policies for selective waste collection in Brazil, and supports effective infrastructure and decent working conditions for waste collectors’ cooperatives as a seed investor in the Recicleiros Cidades programme. Set up with NGO Recicleiros in 2018, the programme is now operational in 13 municipalities and aims to reach 60 by 2027.

The focus on recycling in Brazil is part of SIG’s global Way Beyond Good commitment to enhance the positive environmental and social impact of its packs throughout their lifecycle.

“At SIG, we are committed to sourcing the materials that go into our packs sustainably. We are already the first aseptic carton producer to source 100 percent FSCTM-certified board and use ASI-certified aluminium,” says Isabela De Marchi, Sustainability Manager for SIG South America. “We are also determined to foster an ethical recycling chain that promotes collection and recycling of our packs after use in a way that supports communities, workers and the environment. The new recycling plant in Paraná takes us a step further on this journey by maximising the retained economic and environmental value of the materials recovered from aseptic cartons.”

 

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Use of renewable energy

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The construction of a vast solar installation at SIG’s production site in Linnich, Germany, will see SIG further extend its lead in the beverage carton industry in the use of renewable energy. The 10.25MWp system, made up of 22,300 photovoltaic solar panels, will be the largest photovoltaic system at an SIG plant to date.

“The thousands of solar panels we are installing in Linnich will double our on-site renewable energy capacity in Germany,” said Arnold Schuhwerk, Head of Category Polymers & Energy Global at SIG. “This latest investment shows that SIG is not only committed to continue making its beverage cartons with 100 percent renewable energy, but to continually improve the quality of that renewable energy through physical power purchase agreements.”

 

Maximising on-site capacity

SIG is already the first and only aseptic carton manufacturer to produce all its packs with 100 percent renewable energy globally since 2018.

The company recently secured physical power purchase agreements that will provide enough renewable energy capacity to power 100 percent of its carton packaging production in Germany from January 2023 – and the Linnich installation will enable more of this to come from its own sites.

Construction has begun on a gigantic ground-standing system of 20,600 panels that will occupy an 80,000 squarer meters area in front of the Linnich plant – that’s the equivalent of 11 soccer fields side by side. A further 1,700 panels will cover the plant’s rooftop to maximise potential to solar power on the site.

As the owner and operator of the Linnich photovoltaic system, Leipziger Stadtwerke will pass on the solar power generated directly to SIG through a long-term power purchase agreement. The power will go straight into the production of SIG carton packs at the site.

“Leipziger Stadtwerke is driving forward the expansion of renewable energies, including working with partners like SIG. The solar installation at the SIG plant in Linnich is another milestone towards the decarbonising of energy systems in Germany,” says Maik Piehler, Managing Director of Leipziger Stadtwerke. “We are pleased to be able to make an important contribution to this. The project is one of the largest photovoltaic self-supply systems with direct connection in Germany that is operated without using the public grid and without any subsidies on industrial land.”

 

Going Way Beyond Good for climate

SIG already doubled its on-site solar capacity in 2021 to 11.3MWp and plans to triple this again within the next year. The Linnich system will play a big part in this expansion, together with installations in development at other SIG plants in Germany, Saudi Arabia and Mexico.

 

The company’s focus on renewable energy is part of SIG’s Way Beyond Good Climate+ ambition that is driving down value chain carbon emissions for its business and its customers.

Use of renewable energy for carton packaging production has already avoided over half a million tonnes of CO2-equivalent and these savings will continue to grow. The new Linnich installation alone will generate enough renewable electricity to reduce more than 3,150 tonnes of carbon emissions a year.

 

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Commitment to sustainability

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EcoVadis, the world’s largest provider of corporate sustainability ratings, has presented Bilfinger SE with a Gold Award for sustainable, ethical and responsible business practices. The Group is thus among the top 5 percent of companies from the more than 100,000 throughout the world that EcoVadis analyzed.

“We are truly proud to receive this award. The results clearly show that the sustainability principle is firmly established in our Group structure and that it is actively embraced by our employees. At the same time, we see the award as an incentive for our future performance”, says Bilfinger Group CEO Thomas Schulz. “The impartial recognition from EcoVadis also serves as confirmation for our process industry customers that with Bilfinger they have a responsible and trustworthy partner at their side ready to help them successfully implement their own sustainability goals.”

The EcoVadis evaluation is based on a comprehensive catalog of questions in which the results of the criteria surveyed are grouped into the four topic areas including environment, labor & human rights, ethics and sustainable procurement. In the most recent survey, Bilfinger improved in both the environment category (from 70 to 80 points), in the labor & human rights category (from 60 to 70 points) and in the sustainable procurement category (from 40 to 50 points). In the ethics category, the same figure as in the previous year (60 points) was achieved. Overall, Bilfinger achieved a score of 68 from a possible 100 points in the annual survey conducted by EcoVadis. The industrial services provider thus surpassed its results from the previous year’s survey by eight points.

Bilfinger has been reporting on its sustainability activities on an annual basis since 2011 and has published an externally-audited non-financial report every year since 2018. In accordance with the Greenhouse Gas Protocol and as part of its current Annual Report, the Group has also formulated specific targets for its own carbon footprint in the form of a so-called “Sustainability Commitment”. This commitment calls for CO2 equivalents under Scope 1 and 2 to be successively reduced from around 60,000 metric tons in 2021 to ‘net zero’ by the end of 2030 at the latest.

Bilfinger is also increasingly providing its customers with valuable support to help them achieve their own sustainability goals. The Group’s customers face the challenge of securing their energy supply for the future and significantly reducing their carbon footprint. As a key component of the company’s growth strategy, Bilfinger targets an increase in revenues from energy transition and carbon reduction projects from approximately €500 million in 2021 to around €1 billion by 2024.

 

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